Thursday, June 12, 2008
Types of Trading Analysis
There are 2 types of analysis you can take when approaching the forex: Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis. There has always been a constant debate as to which analysis is better, but to tell you the truth, you need to know a little bit of both.
Fundamental analysis:
Fundamental analysis is a method used to evaluate the worth of a security by studying the financial data of the issuer. It scrutinizes the issuer’s income and expenses, assets and liabilities, management, and position in its industry. In other words, it focuses on the “basics” of the business.
Technical analysis:
Technical analysis can be conditionally divided into some main parts such as:
Types of charts.
Graphical methods.
Analytical methods.
Technical indicators.
Charts
Here’re the most popular types of charts:
Line Charts
A line chart simple a graph of the value of a currency taken at regular time intervals based on current prices. Below is a LINE CHART.
Bar Charts
Bar chart is graphic representation of price action using a vertical bar to connect the highest price to the lowest price during a period. The opening price is displayed as a horizontal line on the left side of the bar.The closing price is displayed as a horizontal line on the right side of the bar.Bar charts can be constructed for any time period in which prices are available. Traditionally, the most popular time interval for bar chart is hourly chart. However, since the wide availability of the real time prices, it is commen to use smaller time interval such as 30 minutes, 15 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 minuteBelow is a BAR CHART
Candlestick Charts
Candlestick Charts identical to a bar chart in the information conveyed, but presented in an entirely different visual context. The candlestick encapsulates the open, high, low and close of the trading period in a single candle.Candlestick charts are much more visually appealing than a standard two-dimensional bar chart. As in a standard bar chart, there are four elements necessary to construct a candlestick chart, the OPEN, HIGH, LOW and CLOSING price for a given time period. Below are examples of candlesticks and a definition for each candlestick.
What is a Candlestick?
Back in the day when Godzilla was still a cute little lizard, the Japanese created their own old school version of technical analysis to trade rice. A westerner by the name of Steve Nison “discovered” this secret technique on how to read charts from a fellow Japanese broker and Japanese candlesticks lived happily ever after. Steve researched, studied, lived, breathed, ate candlesticks, began writing about it and slowly grew in popularity in 90.
Candlesticks are formed using the open, high, low and close.
If the close is above the open, then a hollow candlestick (usually displayed as white) is drawn.
If the close is below the open, then a filled candlestick (usually displayed as black) is drawn.
The hollow or filled section of the candlestick is called the “real body” or body.
The thin lines poking above and below the body display the high/low range and are called shadows.
The top of the upper shadow is the “high”.
The bottom of the lower shadow is the “low”.
Candlestick Chart Terms
The candle consists of two parts: the body and the shadows. The body reflects the open and closing price for the certain period. The candle body is black if the close price below the open, and white if the close was higher than the open for the period. The candlestick shadow reflects the intra-period high and low prices. (Note: In candlestick charting the following periods are often used; 5 min, 15 min, 1 hour, daily and weekly). Long shadows, show that the trading extended well beyond the opening and/or closing price, while short shadows, show that trading was confined closely to the open and/or closing price.
Basic Candlestick Patterns
The small real body (whether hollow or filled) shows little movement from open to close, and the shadows indicate that both buyers and sellers were fighting but nobody could gain the upper hand.
If a spinning top forms during an uptrend, this usually means there aren’t many buyers left and a possible reversal in direction could occur.
If a spinning top forms during a downtrend, this usually means there aren’t many sellers left and a possible reversal in direction could occur.
CandleStick Patterns & Reversal Patterns
Candlestick charts are much more visually appealing than a standard two-dimensional bar chart. As in a standard bar chart, there are four elements necessary to construct a candlestick chart, the OPEN, HIGH, LOW and CLOSING price for a given time period.
The body of the candlestick is called the real body, and represents the range between the open and closing prices. A black or filled-in body represents that the close during that time period was lower than the open, (normally considered bearish) and when the body is open or white, that means the close was higher than the open (normally bullish). The thin vertical line above and/or below the real body is called the upper/lower shadow, representing the high/low price extremes for the period (one period of time measures the duration of selling or buying within the market).
ForexGen Putting It All Together
In a perfect world, we could take just one of these indicators and trade strictly by what that indicator told us. The problem is that we DON’T live in a perfect world, and each of these indicators has imperfections. That is why many traders combine different indicators together so that they can “screen” each other.
We urge you to study each indicator on its own until you know EXACTLY how it reacts to price movement, and then come up with your own combination that fits your trading style. Later on in the course, we will show you a system that combines different indicators to give you an idea of how they can compliment each other.
Everything you learn about trading is like a tool that is being added to your trader’s toolbox. Your tools will make it easier for you to “build” your trading account
Putting It All Together With ForexGen
Used to measure the market’s volatility.
They act like mini support and resistance levels.
Bollinger Bounce.
A strategy that relies on the notion that price tends to always return to the middle of the Bollinger Bands.
You buy when the price hits the lower Bollinger band.
Bollinger Squeeze
A strategy that is used to catch breakouts early.
When the Bollinger bands “squeeze” the price, it means that the market is very quiet, and a breakout is eminent
ForexGen`s MACD
It consists of 2 moving averages (1 fast, 1 slow) and vertical lines called a histogram, which measures the distance between the 2 moving averages.
Contrary to what many people think, the moving average lines are NOT moving averages of the price. They are moving averages of other moving averages.
MACD’s downfall is its lag because it uses so many moving averages.
One way to use MACD is to wait for the fast line to “cross over” or “cross under” .
ForexGen`s Parabolic SAR
This indicator is made to spot trend reversals; hence the name Parabolic Stop And Reversal (SAR)
This is the easiest indicator to interpret because it only gives bullish and bearish signals.
When the dots are above the candles, it is a sell signal.
When the dots are below the candles, it is a buy signal.
These are best used in trending markets
ForexGen`s Parabolic SAR
This indicator is made to spot trend reversals; hence the name Parabolic Stop And Reversal (SAR)
This is the easiest indicator to interpret because it only gives bullish and bearish signals.
When the dots are above the candles, it is a sell signal.
When the dots are below the candles, it is a buy signal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
A technical indicator used to compare the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses to determine overbought and oversold conditions in the market. . It can be calculated using the this formula:
RSI=100
100- 1+rs
readings below 20 refer to oversold, while readings over 80 indicate overbought. the RSI ranges from 0 to 100
The RSI is best used as a valuable complement to other stock-picking tools. Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is like the stochastic in that it means overbought and oversold conditions in the market.
RSI is a famous tool because it can be used to indicate the trend formations. When you find a trend is forming, you can take a look at the RSI and look at if it is up or under 50.
Stochastics
The Stochastic are scaled from 0 to 100.The stochastic tells us when the market is overbought or oversold.
When the stochastic lines are under 30 (the green line), it means that the market is oversold ,When the stochastic lines are up 70 (the red line in the chart) it means the market is overbought.
Stochastics are another indicators used to helps us to determine where a trend will be ending.A stochastic is an oscillator that measures overbought and oversold conditions in the market.
HOW TO APPLY STOCHASTICS
The stochastics let us know when the market is overbought or oversold. When the stochastic lines are under 30 (the green line) ,it means that the market is oversold but When the stochastic lines are up 70 (the red line), it means that the market is oversold
MACD
A trend indicator used to show the relation between two moving averages of prices.
with the MACD chart ,You will see three numbers
• 1- the number of periods used to calculate the faster moving average.
• 2-the number of periods used to calculate the slower moving average
• 3- the number of bars used to differentiate between the fast and slow moving averages.
MACD crossover is a signal to buy or sell
re are 2 moving averages with different speed, the faster will be quicker to react to price movement than the slower.
THR MACD STILL ONE OF THE MOST FAMOUS TYPES USED BY MANY TRADERS
What is the truth with ForexGen?
These bucket shops trade against the clients, i.e. they serve as market makers and more often than not take the other side of trades against clients. They understand statistically that most financial market traders perform with negative expectancies, hence making trading against a losing crowd profitable business. This aslo explains why they target and welcome financial industry newbies so much.
What about the ones smart enough to eventually trade profitably? These brokers operate to preserve capital, and they resort to whatever means available and prevent consistent winnings off any client. Software disconnects, lagging/fraudulent price quotes, unfilled orders, or simply account banning have become some, certainly not all, common bucket-shop practices.
The above explains why most Forex brokers have incentives for clients to lose, and hence not legitimate. It has given Foreign Exchange trading a bad name, though it can become lucrative still, just not through the typical bucket-shops.
Forex Hedge Funds with ForexGen
Hedge funds gained their popularity in the U.S. but foreign markets are starting to catch on to the idea. Hedge funds are known for their secrecy and exemption from regulatory rules. This investment vehicle moving overseas only makes it more attractive. There are however a few concerns when thinking about FOREX hedge funds.
Even less regulatory oversight
Less legal protection against losses
For now mostly meant to attract U.S. investors
Still relatively new and untested
This is not meant to completely discourage FOREX hedge fund investing but to make you aware of the potential risks involved. Hedge funds typically require hundreds of thousands of dollars in initial investments and that would be no small loss in a new trend scam if that’s what your first FOREX hedge fund investment turned out to be. Read more…
Trend Analysis and The Forex Market with ForexGen
Manage Risk Profile with ForexGen
ForexGen Trading Platform
Gaining Experience in Trading with ForexGen
Here is one secret that can shorten your learning curve as a forex trader. Get yourself a trade simulator and practise your trading methodology repeatedly till you are consistently profitable before you trade. Practice makes perfect, and you can pick up years of experience as a forex trader within weeks on a trade simulator with a large database of price movements. Read more…
ForexGen Mini Forex Trading Account
For the beginner trader, the use of a mini forex trading account will greatly reduce his risk as he puts into practise whatever he has learnt in forex trading. A mini forex trading account possesses more leverage and a trader can start to trade with very low capital, and therefore reduced risk. In that way, he can start to maintain discipline in trading without worrying too much on losing a big sum of money.
On the basis of these guidelines, it is possible for a person to craft or design an initial plan to acquire personal forex training and education so that he can become a professional or private forex trader.
For more information please contact us at www.forexgen.com
The Mathematical Think-Tank with ForexGen
Selling Fantasies
Every ad starts with some wild claims of something along the lines of “Make $5,000 a week sitting at home!”, “Easy money from Forex!”, or anything else with excessive amounts of exclamation marks, you get the drift. They entice people with fantasies where truth lies away in distance. Read more…
ForexGen Solutions
Have you managed to minimize your risk and maximize your reward?
Have you maintained consistency?
Have you been able to control your emotions?
Have you developed a complete trading system that you’ve been able to follow without deviation?
If you haven’t been profitable, have you at least been able to turn those gushing drawdowns into slow bleeders?
For more information please contact us at www.forexgen.com
ForexGen Opens Doors for Complaints
I haven’t been able to make any progress monetarily in about a month. I’m up about 4% this month but breaking my account balance all-time high has been a struggle. I’m pretty much stuck where I was around this time last month. I’m not all that concerned and shouldn’t be considering I was preaching patience a couple of days ago. It’s just that every time I open my trading platform, the account balance is just staring me in the face. Read more…
Forex Trading Education with ForexGen
If you are seeking to educate yourself about forex trading, most probably your main objective is to gain trading skills so that you are able to trade independently and to be able to create personal consistent wealth through forex trading. Most forex traders are independent traders or individuals who are trading from the comfort of their own homes and not institutional traders who are backed with large quantities of capital by commercial organisations or sponsored by large investing funds.
The distinction between private forex education and academic education
If you are an individual private forex trader, then what you need is a practical forex trading education that will encompass the practical aspects of trading and how to make money from your trades rather than an all comprehensive education involving the historical background of forex, the intricacies of price movements or the more mundane academic statistical studies of finance and currencies. So if you are someone entering into the forex market with the intention to make money from trading forex, then look for someone or a mentor or a trading course that can allow you to learn how to trade profitably.
As a wealth creator, this is what you should look out for in planning your own forex trading education or learning plan. Read more…
Money Manager with ForexGen
A money manager receives payment in exchange for choosing and monitoring appropriate investments for the client.
Benefits of being a Money Manager with ForexGen:
Providing three different commission sources.
Weekly commission plan.
Easy & fast commission withdrawals.
Fixed percentage of the profits.
P = k * D “P=Profit, k=Variable Parameter, D=Deposits”
The money manager gets a fixed percentage of the profit previously agreed upon with the client for managing the client funds as a bonus feature. Read more…
ForexGen LTD History
ForexGen LLXserves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.Read more…
MA Summary
We can find many types of moving averages .the 2 most popular types are: Simple Moving Average and Exponential Moving Average.• The simple form of moving average (SMA) will be the simple moving average, is formed by computing the average = price of a security over a number of periods• Exponential moving averages: EMA’s reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices relative to older prices.
• The best way to use moving averages is to plot different types on a chart so that you can see both long term movement and short term movement.
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SMA vs. EMA
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
For example: a 10-period exponential moving average weighs the most recent price 18.18% while a 20-period EMA weighs the most recent price 9.52%. As we will see, the calculating and exponential moving average is much harder than calculating an simple moving average. The important thing to remember is that the exponential moving average puts more weight on recent prices.
exponential Moving Average Calculation
Exponential Moving Averages can be specified in two ways - as a percent-based exponential m
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
11+ 12 + 13 + 14 = 50
(50 / 4) = 12.5
The calculation is repeated for each price bar on the chart. The averages are then joined to form a smooth curving line - the moving average line. Continuing our example, if the next closing price in the average is 15, then this new period would be added and the oldest day.
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Fibonacci Extension
what is fibonacci and how to use it in the world of FX?
Leonardo Fibonacci was a 13th century mathematician who noted that there are certain ratios that tend to occur repeatdly in nature . The common ones that he identified were 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
For example, the distance from your fingertips to your wrist is 38.2% of the distance from your fingertips to your elbow. There is overwhelming evidence of Fibonacci ratios operating throughout nature.
These are not always perfect, but surprisengly they work more than just often!! Many people have argued about why these work, but my opinion is that all the large institutions use them, so you might as well buy or sell at the same levels that they do and if these levels don’t hold you can get out with a small loss.
Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci
We should know from the beginning that the Fibonacci is a big subject and there are many ways to study the Fibonacci .there is a lot of types of the Fibonacci but we will show 2 types only: the Fibonacci retracement and extension.
The number series starts from the number 1 then the number 2 and after that we add 1+2 we will get 3 ,it will be the third number ,then we add 2+3 we will get 5 and that will be the fourth number.
Fibonacci extension: the levels of Fibonacci extension will be 0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618.many Traders can use the Fibonacci extension as profit taking level and when they watch the same levels ,they can buy or sell to enter the trade or cancel it, so this will become a due self-fulfilling expectation.
Channels
There are 2 types of channels in the forex market :1-If you want to create a down channel, it may also be called a descending channel, you can simply draw a line at the same angle as the downtrend and after that move the line to a new place where it can reach the most recent both valley.
For the both channels ,it should be done at the same time to you to create the trend line.It may be a sell signal when the prices hit the up trend line and it can be a buy signal when the prices hits the down trend line
Trend Lines
There are two kinds of trends:Stock up trend: it can be used like a sell signal, deemed to be complete with the formation of a lower high or a lower low.Stock downtrend: it can be used like a buy signal , deemed to be complete with the formation of a higher low or higher high.
Support and Resistance
Most experienced traders will be able to tell many stories about how certain price levels tend to prevent traders from pushing the price of an underlying asset in a certain direction.Most technical traders incorporate the power of various technical indicators such as moving averages, to aid in predicting future short-term momentum, but these traders never fully realize the ability these tools have for identifying levels of support and resistance
Lagging Indicators
As it measures the economic activities of previous months, the Composite Index of Lagging Indicators is used as an after-the-fact way to help confirm economists’ assessment of current economic conditions.
Oscillators
Fast %K = ((Today’s Close - Lowest Low in %K Periods) / (Highest High in %K Periods - Lowest Low in %K Periods)) 100
Leading vs. Lagging Indicators
Leading Indicators
An index published monthly by the Conference Board used to predict the direction of the economy’s movements in the months to come. The index is made up of 10 economic components, whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy.
These 5 components include:
1. the average weekly hours worked by manufacturing workers.2. The average number of initial applications for unemployment insurance.3. The amount of manufacturer’s new orders for consumer goods and materials.4. The speed of delivery of new merchandise to vendors from suppliers.5. The amount of new orders for capital goods unrelated to defense.
The Million Dollar Question
For now, just know that once you’re able to identify the type of market you are trading in, you will then know which indicators will give accurate signals, and which ones are worthless at that time.
Summary
There are two types of indicators: leading and lagging.
A leading indicator gives a buy signal before the new trend or reversal occurs.
A lagging indicator gives a signal after the trend has started .
Technical indicators into one of two categories: Oscillators and trend following or momentum indicators.
Double Bottom
The twice touched low is considered a support level.
Most technical analysts believe that the advance off of the first bottom should be 10-20%. The second bottom should form within 3-4% of the previous low, and volume on the ensuring advance should increase.
Ascending Triangles
An ascending triangle is generally considered to be a continuation pattern, meaning that it is usually found amid a period of consolidation within an uptrend. Once the breakout occurs, buyers will aggressively send the price of the asset higher, usually on high volume. The most common price target is generally set to be equal to the entry price plus the vertical height of the triangle.
Descending Triangles
This is a very popular tool among traders because it clearly shows that the demand for an asset is weakening, and when the price breaks below the lower support, it is a clear indication that downside momentum is likely to continue or become stronger.